Move Complete, Site Resumes, and I Endorse Obama

The past couple of weeks I have not been able to create any new posts to this site. The reason is that I have been busy moving from Orlando to Tampa. Between starting a new job, getting a new internet connection at my new location, and the complexities of the move itself, I have not been able to devote any time to the site at all. Since my last post, John Edwards has dropped out, Mitt Romney has dropped out, McCain has become the presumed Republican nominee and the Democrats are down to a fight between Obama and Clinton after Obama has won most of the last 8-10 states. This last point deserves a little commentary on my part.

As most of you are well aware, Obama has opened up a bit of a lead over Clinton in the PLEDGED delegate count and the OVERALL delegate count. However, at this point, Clinton has a lead over Obama in the SUPERDELEGATE count. The Superdelegates, comprised of party establishment elites, senators, governors, representatives and party activists, make up about 20% of the total delegates sent to the Democratic convention. So what is the difference between a delegate and a superdelegate?

When we vote in caucuses or primaries, you are actually voting for delegates to be sent to the convention to place their vote for a candidate. The Democratic process of selecting delegates is very complex, but to simplify it, the total delegates of a state are allocated to candidates based on the percentage of votes they receive in that state. Some states apportion the delegates by congressional or senatorial district, however we are going to simplify the process a littl bit to make it more understandable. Lets say you live in a state that has 100 delegates. In your states primary, Barack Obama won over Hillary Clinton by a margin of 55% to 45%. In this over-simplified example, Obama would get 55 delegates sent to the convention to vote for him, while Clinton would receive 45. These delegates are bound, or ‘pledged’ to vote for the candidate they have been chosen to vote for. When the convention starts, they will call a roll of the states and when it comes time for your state to announce its delegates, they would report that they have 55 votes for Obama and 45 for Clinton. The first candidate to reach the magic number of 2025 delegates would then get the nomination. Pretty simple, huh? Well, not exactly. First of all, since the race between Obama and Clinton has been so close, it is believed that neither candidate will reach the 2025 threshold when it comes to ‘pledged’ delegates. However, with the addition of the 797 ’superdelegates’, someone could reach that benchmark. Superdelegates are not bound to a candidate. They can support anyone they choose and can switch back and forth as they wish. They can decide to place their vote based on how their district voted, how their state voted, or even how they want to vote with no regard as to how anyone voted. Many will vote based on who they think has the best chance to beat their republican rival. However, the purpose of the superdelegate, as explained in the video on howstuffworks.com is to “check the process if in fact it nominated someone who they thought could be detrimental to the party or if in fact they wanted the process to come to an end”. In other words, if the people vote for a candidate which the party establishment disagrees with, the superdelegates can overturn the will of the people by voting en masse for the other candidate.

Currently, Obama leads Clinton in the popular vote by a tally of 10,110,654 to 9,701,596 – which includes Florida (which is supposed to not send any delegates because of their breaking party rules by voting too early – more on this later). If you do not include Florida, Obama still leads 9,534,440 to 8,830,610. Obama also leads in ‘pledged’ delegates – those elected by the people in the caucuses and primaries by a total of 1134 to 996 and in total delegates (delegates PLUS superdelegates) 1302 to 1235 (based on AP total). However, in superdelegates, Clinton leads 239 to 168. With about 300 superdelegates not declaring who they are supporting at this point, the superdelegates could in fact turn the nomination to Clinton, even if Obama holds on to his current lead. A list of superdelegates and their declaration of support can be found at politico.com

Currently, there are several groups trying to convince the superdelegates to respect the will of the people and support whoever is ahead after the last primaries in June. Moveon.Org has amassed over 400,000 petitioners to this effect. However,even if they succeed and the superdelegates begin to support Obama over Clinton, Clinton could still come out on top because of Florida and Michigan.

Before the primary season officially started, the Democratic party said that with the exceptions of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, no state could hold their caucus or primary before Feb 5, 2008. However, in an attempt to be more ‘viable’ and ‘competitive’, Florida and Michigan decided to hold their primaries in January, defying party rules. As a punishment, the DNC penalized these states by stripping them of their delegates. The republicans also punished MI and FL for the same reason, but only stripped them of half of their delegates. Because of the penalty, all candidates agreed they would not campaign in these states. In fact, in Michigan, only Hillary Clinton and Dennis Kucinich even appeared on the ballot. No one could even vote for Obama in Michigan. In both states, many did not place a vote for Presidential Nominee (such as my mom in Florida who only voted for the property tax amendment on the ballot but left the Presidential Nominee blank) or they just did not go to vote at all. People in these states were told that their vote for a nominee would not count, so they saw no purpose in placing a vote.

In Michigan, where people had a choice between Clinton, Kucinich or ‘undecided’, Clinton won, however, ‘undecided’ received 40% of the vote. In Florida, Clinton also won. However, these contests were considered to be only ‘beauty contests’ since neither candidate campaigned there (as they all agreed not to do) and it is believed most voters voted merely on name recognition since no candidate was able to explain their views to the electorate. So while Clinton technically ‘won’ these two states, it was supposed to be all for naught since no delegates would be sent to the convention from these states. However, now that Clinton is trailing Obama, suddenly Clinton is trying to get the DNC to ’seat’ or allow these delegates to go to the convention and be counted, despite agreeing in the beginning that they would not be seated. If these two contests were to count, even though Obama was not on the Michigan ballot and was not able to campaign in Michigan or Florida, Clinton would easily get the 2025 delegates needed to win the nomination.

In the beginning of the primary season, I did not care who got the nomination. I was hopeful for Edwards, but knew he was a long shot. However, I would have been satisfied with Edwards, Clinton OR Obama receiving the democratic nomination. However, in light of these circumstances regarding superdelegates and the MI/FL fiasco, I view Clinton as nothing more than a power hungry cheater who will stop at nothing to get the nomination. Even if she has to convince superdelegates to overturn the will of the people or if she has to change the rules of the game long after they were agreed to, she will do what it takes to win. For this reason, now that Edwards is officially out, I fully and whole-heartedly support and endorse Barack Obama for the Democratic Presidential nomination.